The Next Two Years of Software Engineering - Addy Osmani

Key Arguments

The Junior Developer Question: Harvard study: junior developer employment drops 9-10% within six quarters of AI adoption, senior roles stable. Big tech hired 50% fewer fresh graduates over three years. Counter: AI could expand demand across non-tech industries. BLS projects 15% growth in software jobs through 2034.

The Skills Question: 84% of developers use AI regularly, risking atrophy of core skills. Counter: human expertise becomes more critical for architecture, security, verifying AI output.

The Role Question: Developers as code auditors or "orchestrators" designing systems and composing AI agents.

Specialist vs. Generalist: T-shaped developers increasingly valued. 45% of engineering roles expect multi-domain proficiency.

The Education Question: Traditional 4-year CS degrees face challenges. 45% of companies planned eliminating bachelor's degree requirements.

Notable Quotes

"The best software engineers won't be the fastest coders, but those who know when to distrust AI"

"I don't want to end up as a code janitor, cleaning up what the AI throws over the wall"

"Engineers become 'composers,' orchestrating ensembles of AI agents"

Main Conclusions

Adaptability and human-centered expertise remain essential. Success depends on continuous learning, maintaining creative/critical thinking, and developing uniquely human skills: communication, system design, mentorship.