Polymarket gamblers threaten to kill me over Iran missile story

Original post submitted by defly, sourced from a Times of Israel article about a journalist covering an Iran missile story who was threatened with death by Polymarket users whose bets would be affected by the reporting.

Key Discussion Threads

Thread A: The Nature of Prediction Markets (margalabargala)

margalabargala: Polymarket is "fundamentally different from e.g. sports betting." Sports betting encourages match-fixing, and "X betting" encourages trying to make "X come about." Their hope was that "Strong regulation and legal consequences could potentially fix this."

rtkwe: Polymarket's "warping influence [applies] to the whole of politics and daily life."

Barbing: Asked if Kalshi's stated purpose (hedging for farmers) was a noble idea ruined by bad event selection. rtkwe: crop insurance already serves that need, accusing Kalshi of "agri-washing their betting market."

gettingoverit: The word "Polymarket" can simply be replaced by "market," suggesting the discipline is inherently corrupting. StrauXX: "The 'market' isn't a zero-sum-game though. Polymarket is."

derf_: Existing federal regulations (17 CFR § 40.11) ban contracts on war and assassination, but the CFTC is currently uninterested in enforcement.

tuple: It is "braindead easy to anonymously threaten people on the internet," suggesting punishing the corporate entity is more realistic than finding individuals.

thaumasiotes: Polymarket operates outside US law.

gepiti: "What happens if someone bets on a terrorist attack in an unlikely place and then puts the bomb himself?"

alephnerd: Polymarket/Kalshi successfully argued they are "democratizing 'futures'" to fall under CFTC jurisdiction rather than gambling laws, backed by lobbying from YCombinator and Sequoia.

throwawayffffas: The key difference from sports betting is that "the object of the bet is open, it can be abused to generate incentives for desired behavior."

bnlxbnlx: Sports involve "appreciating each others' humanity" rather than death. gusgus01: war inherently involves death, unlike sports. hhh: "Sports just delay the death or move it to injury instead."

saalweachter: The perverse incentive: to get rid of a rival, place a bet that they live (a good outcome), incentivizing others to harm them.

lordnacho: Argued against banning, saying it pushes the market "into the hands of organised crime." afthonos: Driving it underground "vastly reduces their harm" through lack of liquidity and discoverability.

CamperBob2: What changed legally for Polymarket to succeed where Intrade failed? refulgentis: The SCOTUS ruling on sports gambling opening the floodgates for VC-funded "that, but for everything" companies.

onion2k: "The existence of something in no way encourages someone to commit a crime." plomme and quantified pushed back, with quantified using the gun control analogy. onion2k revised: "Let's not have banks because they only encourage bank robbers!"

riffraff: Removing motive and opportunity is a real regulatory strategy.

holmesworcester: Manipulation creates opportunities for better prediction markets. gzread: doubted customers would trust new markets.

esalman: Referenced a "Good Work" YouTube video explaining the CFTC loophole.

basilikum: Cited the Borussia Dortmund team bus bombing as evidence of sports gambling violence. margalabargala: "I wouldn't say one in the last decade is 'tons of people'."

Thread B: Gambling vs. Prediction Markets (pindab0ter)

pindab0ter: "These prediction markets incentivize the absolute worst in humanity," noting they allow betting on "when the invasion of a foreign country or the demise of a person happens."

scoofy: "Just call it gambling. They aren't 'prediction markets,' they're just gambling."

fritzo: Distinguished gambling-as-addiction from market manipulation: "We're talking about gambling as big players paying participants to throw fights, paying referees to call shots, and the players are the real world and the referees are journalists."

Invictus0: Rejected the "gambling" label: "That's fundamentally wrong." Prediction markets involve skill and research, unlike games of pure chance. scoofy: Linked Fooled by Randomness.

Dylan16807: "the ability to influence events makes it unlike gambling." scoofy: Any "zero-sum game with an effectively uncertain outcome is effectively gambling."

fc417fc802: Any monetary wager without productive economic engagement is gambling, including most day trading.

arcticfox: Formerly pro-betting legalization but now sees it as "a corrosive influence on everything it touches."

cybernoodles: It needs a new word because it's "far worse than gambling when you can effectively put a hit on someone."

Thread C: Death Bets (bagacrap)

bagacrap: "you can't bet on the demise of a person" in the US, as Kalshi discovered when their bet on Iran's leadership change did not pay out.

ptsneves: Polymarket allows person-demise bets; Kalshi does not.

loeg: Polymarket expanded into the US market, so such bets likely violate US regulation. fer: Cited Polymarket's geoblocking policy. loeg: Called the geoblocking a "wink-wink dance."

newswasboring: "Gambling markets like polymarket are morally corrupt."

thrance: Markets for "X out of function by april" are "functionally equivalent to betting on their demise."

impjohn: A person under threat might bet their life savings on their own death, as it would "reduce incentive (profit)." A darkly rational self-defense mechanism.

Thread D: The Journalist's Dilemma (awakeasleep)

awakeasleep: "No matter what he reported, he would have the other side threatening him," since money was on both outcomes.

ntonozzi: The journalist's job "is to report reality, not avoid threats."

abracadaniel: This could turn into a "bidding war to determine the 'reality'."

asdff: "'Reality' is a subjective accounting."

bigyabai: Invoked the context of Israeli journalists, linking lists of killed journalists and the Israeli Military Censor.

yonixw: Dismissed as a "gish gallop." b345: ICC "is clearly investigating Israeli war crimes of targeted journalist executions." yonixw: "Investigating != Judgment."

munificent: Journalists in warzones face enough threats without being targeted by "a pile of sociopaths running their own sick gambling dead pools."

Thread E: Privacy Solutions (sam0x17)

sam0x17: Proposed privacy protocols for prediction markets, calling public odds "outcome-shaping markets" rather than prediction markets. Suggested hiding which side liquidity sits on until resolution.

andai: Recalled rumors of dark web assassination markets operating like a "kickstarter for assassinations."

jacquesm: Linked the Wikipedia page for "Assassination market."

casey2: "I'd rather live in a world with open, regulated, assassination markets." (Controversial.)

janalsncm: "That wouldn't solve the issue in the article," since gamblers know their own stake regardless.

necovek: Gamblers "appropriate expected winnings instead of what they really put in," amplifying the loss mentality.

arduanika: Heavily criticized the privacy proposal: "Goons are hiding behind privacy to threaten a reporter and his family? Let's give them more privacy, that'll fix it?"

dlenski: "The entire rationale for claiming that prediction markets 'aren't just gambling' is that they surface sentiment."

sam0x17: "the entire social value rationale is actually what makes prediction markets dangerous / socially bad."

Legend2440: Removing odds "would remove the supposed purpose of prediction markets."

geor9e: Asked for an example of polymarket betters changing an outcome. mitthrowaway2: Linked a ZeroHedge article. sam0x17: The market itself becomes the determinant.